ABD Ankara Büyükelçisi Robert Pearson, 04.12.2002, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

"Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’ın, 2002 seçimlerinden sonra, siyasi yasakları devam ederken, 9-10 Aralık 2002 tarihli Washington gezisi öncesi, zamanın ABD Ankara Büyükelçisi Pearson tarafından 4 Aralık’ta merkeze gönderilen tanıtım şöyleydi.

“AK Parti hükümetini ve kamuoyunu Irak ve diğer stratejik ABD çıkarları konusunda yönlendirmede anahtar olan kişi Türkiye’nin en güçlü politikacısı Tayyip Erdoğan.
Politikaya dönüşünü engellemeye çalışan Kemalist devletin devamlı çabaları onun gururunu kırmak değil aksine yükseltti. Ona şimdiden hükümet başkanı muamelesi yapmak, ABD’nin Türkiye üzerindeki etkilerini geliştirmek ve Avrupa Birliğine, Kopenhag zirvesinden Türkiye’nin AB’ye giriş görüşmelerine tarih almasına destek olduğumuzu belirtmek için büyük bir yatırım olacak.

Bu bağlamda Erdoğan’ın Washington ziyareti, ABD’nin temel çıkarlarını desteklemek yolunda mükemmel bir fırsat olacak; bunu,

1. Türkiye’deki demokratik seçim sonuçlarına ve AK Parti’nin demokrasiyi ilerletme vaadine saygılı olduğumuzu göstererek,
2. AK Parti, ve şu anda Türkiye’nin bir numaralı politikacısı Erdoğan üzerindeki nüfuzumuzu güçlendirerek,
3. Türkiye’ye istediğimizi yaptırabilecek tek politikacı olan Erdoğan’ı, Irak, Kıbrıs, iç politika ve ekonomik reformlar konusunda doğru kararlar almasına ikna ederek yapacağız.

Erdoğan’ın kişiliği

Erdoğan’ın karizması, defansif tutumu, güçlü sezgisi, etrafa hükmeden (hatta otoriter) davranışı, sıradan kişilerle yakınlık kurması – Türk politikacılarında az görülen – ve hafif kasıntısı, onun gençliğinde İstanbul’un yaşamın zorlu bir semti olan Kasımpaşa’dan kendine bir gelecek hazırlaması, İmam-Hatip’te okuması ve profesyonel olarak futbol oynamasından geliyor. Hem duygusal çıkışlara, hem de politik gücü soğukkanlılıkla kullanmaya eğimli. Kendine çok güvenli, son derece gururlu ancak beklediği saygıyı bulamadığında hemen alınan, eleştiriye ters tepki gösteren bir kişiliği var. Bunlara rağmen, 12 milyonluk İstanbul belediye reisliğinde, Kıbrıs konusunda katı tutumlardan sıyrılmaya çalışmalarında, ve türban gibi çok hassas bir konuda ne zaman çıkış yapacağını, ne zaman arka planda kalacağını bilen zamanlamalarla sorunlara kolay çözümler bulan birisi olduğunu gösterdi.

Yabancı dil bilmemesi ve doğru dürüst bir eğitimi olmamasından dolayı yabancı muhataplarla toplantılarını, sezgisi, tavrı, ve yakınlaşma kabiliyetine dayanarak yürütür.

Dikkatle dinler ve muhataplarının onu ve konuyu ciddi, hatta ehemmiyetli görmelerini bekler. Aynı zamanda, uygun yerleştirilmiş bir fıkra veya hafiften bir yoruma da açıktır. Erdoğan, İstanbul’un üç büyük futbol takımından biri olan Sarı Kanarya lâkaplı Fenerbahçe’nin koyu taraftarıdır; sarı veya sarı lacivert motifli bir hediye, hele onun futbol aşkı ile ilgili bir yorum ile birlikte gelirse çok etkili olacaktır. Erdoğan’ın tarzı, düşüncesini önce yumuşak ve öz biçimde aktarmak; direnme ile karşılaşırsa ikinci defada bir basamak sertleşmek ve karşılık aldıkça daha da haşinleşmek. Açık baskıya veya zımnî tehditlere karşı davranışı terstir. Sert bir kararı alması için onu ikna etmenin en iyi yolu, sükûnetle, onun Türkiye’nin kaderini belirleyecek kişi olduğu inancına hitap etmektir.”

Kaynak: http://wikileaks.org/cable/2002/12/02ANKARA8852.html# "

SCENESETTER FOR DEC. 9-10 WASHINGTON VISIT OF AK PARTY CHAIRMAN R. TAYYIP ERDOGAN
Date: 2002 December 4, 15:18 (Wednesday)	Canonical ID: 02ANKARA8852_a
Original Classification: CONFIDENTIAL	Current Classification: CONFIDENTIAL
Handling Restrictions -- Not Assigned --	Character Count: 9042
Executive Order: -- Not Assigned --	Locator: TEXT ONLINE
TAGS: ECON - Economic Affairs--Economic Conditions, Trends and Potential |PGOV - Political Affairs--Government; Internal Governmental Affairs | PINS - Political Affairs--Internal Security |PREL - Political Affairs--External Political Relations | TU - Turkey	Concepts: -- Not Assigned --
Enclosure: -- Not Assigned --	Type: TE - Telegram (cable)
Office Origin: -- N/A or Blank -- Office Action: -- N/A or Blank --	Archive Status: -- Not Assigned --
From: Turkey Ankara	Markings: -- Not Assigned --
To: -- N/A or Blank --

B. ANKARA 8252 C. ANKARA 7683 D. ANKARA 8448 E. ANKARA 8382 (U) Classified by Ambassador W.R. Pearson; reasons: 1.5 (b,d). 1. (C) Summary: As Turkey's strongest politician Tayyip Erdogan is key to our ability to influence the AK Party government and public opinion on Iraq and other strategic U.S. interests. His heightened sense of pride is undiminished, indeed boosted, by the Kemalist State's continuing attempts to spike his return to full public life; treating him as if he were already head of government will thus pay enormous dividends for U.S. influence in Turkey and underscore to the EU our strong support for a date for Turkish accession talks from the Copenhagen summit. End summary. 2. (C) Coming off a smashing electoral victory by his AK (Justice and Development) Party and a tour of 14 EU capitals where he was welcomed like a head of government, unelected Tayyip Erdogan is the new colossus in Turkish politics. What gave Erdogan's party its victory on Nov. 3 were his reputation as a responsive mayor of Istanbul, his advocacy of fair and just reforms, and his political magnetism across Anatolia, a magnetism enhanced by the State's controversial decision to rule him ineligible to stand for election (ref A). Erdogan is now determined to parlay his victory and new national stature into a restoration of his political rights so he may enter Parliament and assume the prime ministership by late winter or early spring. 3. (C) Despite his popularity in urban sprawls and across Anatolia, Erdogan is far from being universally liked. Indeed, he is loathed by most of the Establishment. The Establishment prefers to portray him as a mediocrely educated, local tough guy made (too) good, a charismatic but dangerous preacher-politician who will lead Turkey to the Sharia. Many political and bureaucratic insiders tell us that, for this reason, the Deep State (ref B) will do all in its power through legal maneuver or provocations to try to keep Erdogan permanently off balance. 4. (C) In this context Erdogan's visit to Washington is an excellent opportunity to promote core U.S. interests by (1) demonstrating that we respect the democratic election results in Turkey and the AK government's commitment to further democratization; (2) strengthening our influence with AK and Erdogan as the paramount politician in Turkey today; and (3) convincing Erdogan, the one politician who can deliver Turkey at this stage, to make the right decisions on Iraq, Cyprus, and domestic political and economic reform. --------------- Erdogan The Man --------------- 5. (C) Erdogan's charisma, defensiveness, strong intuition, commanding (even authoritarian) presence, common touch -- rare among Turkish politicians -- and slight swagger come from having to make his way as a youth in the gritty Istanbul neighborhood of Kasimpasa, attending a preacher (imam-hatip) high school, and playing professional soccer. He is both prone to emotional reactions and cool in wielding political power. He has a huge self-image and heightened sense of pride, both easily wounded when he thinks he is not being shown due respect, and reacts badly to criticism. Yet he has proved he has a strong pragmatic streak as mayor of the 12 million-strong Istanbul, in trying to break out of sclerotic approaches to Cyprus, and in having a well-tuned (if acquired) sense of timing on when to push and when to hold back on sensitive questions like the headscarf issue. 6. (C) Not knowing any foreign language and lacking a strong, well-rounded education, Erdogan relies on his intuitions, presence, and ability to bond to manage meetings with foreign interlocutors. He will listen intently and expects his interlocutors to treat him and the subject seriously, even earnestly. At the same time, he is open to the well-timed joke or lighter comment. In the latter regard, Erdogan is a passionate fan of Fenerbahce, nicknamed the Yellow Canary, one of the big three Istanbul (and Turkish) soccer clubs; a gift with a yellow or yellow and blue motif would be a hit, especially if accompanied by a comment relating to his passion for soccer. Erdogan's style is to make his points initially softly and laconically; if he meets resistance he ratchets up his second response, becoming more stern with each exchange on the topic. He reacts badly to overt pressure or implied threats. The best way to convince him to take a tough decision is to appeal calmly but man-to-man to his sense of destiny as Turkey's leader. --------------- Erdogan's Party --------------- 7. (C) Ref (C) lays out AK's strengths and challenges as they may affect U.S. interests. In the latter regard, we are seeing a post-election differentiation, and thus more of an opening for intra-party tension, in two areas. First, between the party's parliamentary group (which just elected a more religiously conservative set of whips than P.M. Gul expected) and party leadership (which is more weighted to the pragmatic group around Erdogan and Gul). Second, between fiery parliamentary Speaker Arinc and the calmer Gul (ref D). Erdogan will have his hands full keeping the party together as the strains of governing and legislating and outside pressures from the Establishment, public opinion, and foreign policy demands play on the fractions and fissures already extant in this conglomerate party. Many of our contacts from left to center-right predict that AK will split within a year. Perhaps this assessment is wishful thinking tinged with envy, but AK indeed faces marked internal stresses going forward. -------------------- Erdogan's Government -------------------- 8. (C) Erdogan is not yet in the government, but by dominating the news he has ensured that everyone here and abroad recognizes him as de facto -- and future de jure -- head of government. Gul's cabinet (ref E), formed under Erdogan's guidance, mixes men with experience dealing with the Deep State or bureaucracy -- Defense (DefMin Gonul is respected by President Sezer, who is otherwise wary of the new government), Interior, MFA, Education -- with insiders from Erdogan's Istanbul municipal administration and some with wheeler-dealer business connections. 9. (C) Gul will rapidly shepherd through Parliament EU-related democratic reforms and the constitutional changes designed to open the door for Erdogan's assumption of the prime ministership, perhaps in mid- to late winter. A large question remains whether AK has a skillful enough pool of talent to staff the Undersecretary levels and below. We thus share Turkish observers' questions about how well AK will be able (a) to respond pragmatically on foreign policy; (b) to maintain credible economic reform and banking supervisory standards; and (c) to carry out its intended strong reform and anti-corruption drives when faced with deeply entrenched interests and practices. ------------------------ How to Influence Erdogan ------------------------ 10. (C) Given Erdogan's wariness toward the Turkish bureaucracy, it will be key to draw Erdogan aside from his bureaucratic minders to elicit his true thinking on sensitive topics. At the same time, U.S. interlocutors can enhance the impact of their message if they have aides cultivate his closest advisors, especially Erdogan's closest foreign policy advisor Omer Celik. In the wake of the Dec. 3 Wolfowitz-Grossman visit, we suggest the following approach to Erdogan on four key questions: --Iraq: emphasize the benefits to Turkey of full cooperation in coalition preparations for a possible military operation and convince Erdogan he can sell maximum cooperation as not letting foreigners control Turkey's future: "if you don't play the game you don't make the rules." --EU and reform: in reiterating the strength of our support for Turkey's candidacy, give Erdogan our latest information on EU member states' stance (as we have been doing regularly in Ankara) to prepare him for his lobbying in Copenhagen, emphasize the crucial impact of further reform, and urge him to portray the Summit decision on Turkey positively. --Cyprus: urge Erdogan to get Denktas to reach a settlement soonest. --Economic reform, anti-corruption, anti-torture measures, and open government: note that Erdogan's party will be measured at home most by these four yardsticks, note the centrality of maintaining reform momentum and strong, clean banking regulation for the government's image and for preserving market confidence (Erdogan is coming under the sway of corrupt and failed bank owners). PEARSON